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9 per cent and hence if output had been on trend it would have had little impact on the level of unemployment. 12 Interpreting the NAWRU as an indicator of a capacity constraint suggests capacity problems. In this context, higher levels of aggregate demand would place pressure on capacity and could well have some inflationary consequences. The second obstacle is the disparity of unemployment, in that a general increase in demand would push some regions to or even above full employment. The third problem is that there has been incomplete convergence of business cycles across euro area countries, suggesting the Philip Arestis and Malcolm Sawyer 31 need for differentiated policies across countries (and specifically differentiated fiscal policies).

5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. Alternative Perspectives on Economic Policies in the European Union ruthless pursuit of price stability harms economic growth and well-being. Research even questions whether targeting price stability reduces the tradeoff between inflation and unemployment’ (Stiglitz, 2003). See Forder (2000) for an extensive discussion and critique of the notion of credibility. The March 2003 issue of the ECB’s Monthly Bulletin puts it as follows: ‘the outlook for the euro area economy could be significantly improved if governments strengthen their efforts to implement structural reforms in labour and product markets.

European Central Bank (ECB), (2004a), Monthly Bulletin, June, Frankfurt, Germany. European Central Bank (ECB), (2004b), Monthly Bulletin, October, Frankfurt, Germany. European Central Bank (ECBa), (2005a), Monthly Bulletin, March, Frankfurt, Germany. European Central Bank (ECBb), (2005b), The reform of the stability and growth pact, Monthly Bulletin, August, pp. 59–73, Frankfurt, Germany. European Commission (MacDougall Report), (1977), Report of the Study Group on the Role of Public Finance in European Integration.

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